India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has projected the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of the Indian economy to grow at 7.6 percent year-on-year in 2022-23 (FY23). Ind-Ra is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Fitch Group.
However, the size of the Indian economy in FY23 will be 10.2% lower than the FY23 GDP trend value. A continued weakness in private consumption and investment demand is estimated to contribute 43.4% and 21.0%, respectively, to this shortfall. However, if the impact of Omicron on 4QFY22 growth turns out to be greater than Ind-Ra’s estimate, then there could be some upside to the FY23 growth originating from the base effect.
