According to a report from Morgan Stanley, India’s GDP is on track to grow to an impressive $5.7 trillion by the fiscal year 2028, which would make it the third-largest economy in the world, surpassing both Germany and Japan. Right now, India holds the title of the fifth-largest economy, but it’s expected to leapfrog Japan by 2026, claiming the fourth spot. The nation’s share of the global GDP is projected to increase from 3.5% in 2023 to 4.5% by 2029, thanks to robust macroeconomic policies, better infrastructure, and a booming consumer market. The report also discusses various growth scenarios, suggesting that in a best-case scenario, GDP could soar to $10.3 trillion by 2035.
Key Highlights
Projections
- India’s Current Position: The fifth-largest economy after the US, China, Germany, and Japan in 2023.
- Growth Projection: GDP is expected to rise from $3.5 trillion in 2023 to $4.7 trillion in 2026, overtaking Japan to become fourth-largest.
- By 2028: India will surpass Germany, reaching $5.7 trillion, making it the third-largest economy after the US and China.
Historical Position
- 1990 – 12th largest economy
- 2000 – 13th position
- 2020 – 9th position
- 2023 – 5th position
Global Share of GDP
- Expected to increase from 3.5% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2029.
Short-Term Growth
- FY 2025 GDP growth – Expected at 6.3%
- FY 2026 GDP growth – Expected at 6.5%