The Future of India and China Relations

The Future of India-China Relations

The term ‘Stability’ is a much bandied-about the concept when it comes to bilateral relations between any two countries. The Indian and Chinese leaderships have played down the need for it, arguing that in the absence of a conflict per se, what is seen as recurrent instability is no more than the dynamics of normal politico-diplomatic engagement.

When we talk about India-Sino relations we have to factor in a lot of perspectives i.e., cultural, economic, political, defense, etc. And these perspectives are also essential to understand where the future lies.

And since China being our neighbour it becomes important to know the future of their relations after a tumultuous 2020. On one hand, we see Chinese aspirations to be a superpower using aggressive behavior and on the other, a rising India which is not going to let that happen so easily. The most recent example is the border clashes between the two nations in Galwan valley and the level of resistance India showed.

Sino-India Relations

When we talk about the 1962 war, the relations between the two nations were totally disrupted. It took years for them to get close to normal.

It was when the then PM Rajiv Gandhi visited China in 1988. His visit was a landmark one, which had led to the start of bilateral talks which had been disrupted after the war.

Next, in 1993 the historic ‘Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control’ on the border areas was signed. This was a milestone step which was a clear reflection of peace and stability.

The above details give us a clear glimpse that developing and maintaining bilateral relations isn’t an easy task. In earlier times, maintaining relations wasn’t a concern as most economies were closed. But today, Globalisation has changed it all. Today, nations are interdependent on one another. Be it US-China, US-Russia, India-China, etc.

And when we talk about Sino-India, the situation today is way different from the 1962 war. Today, India is an Asian giant and nuclear power. And the post-COVID-19 recovery has been the fastest when compared to other affected nations as cited by, OECD & IMF.

The banning of a number of Chinese mobile applications and making rules stricter for Chinese firms wanting to do business in India reveals India’s strong stand over the issue.

Overall, it is believe the relations between India and China are going to be bleak and antagonistic. They are not going to be the same as they were before 2020. In fact, more adversarial and contentious as said by Shivshankar Menon.

Military relations

China and India conduct a joint military exercise called 'Exercise Hand–in–Hand'. The exercise began in 2007 with the second edition taking place in 2008.

The third, fifth, and seventh editions of Hand-in-Hand were conducted in China in 2013, 2015 and 2018 respectively while the fourth edition and sixth editions were held in India in 2014 and 2016. The eight edition was held in India in 2019.

Cultural Relations

Since the establishment of the diplomatic relations between China and India in 1950, the two countries have kept frequent contacts in cultural exchanges and personnel visits. Lots of cultural activities such as art exhibitions and film weeks have been held in each other's countries.

India-China cultural exchanges date back to many centuries and there is some evidence that conceptual and linguistic exchanges existed in 1500-1000 B.C. between the Shang-Zhou civilization and the ancient Vedic civilization.

During first, second and third centuries A.D. several Buddhist pilgrims and scholars traveled to China on the historic “silk route”. Kashyapa Matanga and Dharmaratna made the White Horse monastery at Luoyang their abode.

Ancient Indian monk-scholars such as Kumarajiva, Bodhidharma and Dharmakshema contributed to the spread of Buddhism in China. Similarly, Chinese pilgrims also undertook journeys to India, the most famous among them being Fa Xian and Xuan Zang.

Economic relations

India and China, as two large developing countries, are facing similar challenges of rapid development and growth. The two countries enjoyed close bilateral and multilateral relations over the past four decades. Benefiting from the advantages brought by both sides, bilateral economic relations have been institutionalized through regular high-level exchanges, especially the government-to-government cooperation mechanism of the annual Leaders' Summit, which has become a channel for communication between leaders of both sides.

The overall pattern of economic relations suggests that India and China have developed their own complementary skills following a period in which they had cut themselves off from each other, in the process becoming almost entirely dependent on Britain.